Economic Red Flags from Trump's Recent Moves

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I saw a recent video from Peter Zeihan called “The Russian Reach,” and it has me a little bit spooked about Donald Trump’s moves and their impact on our economy and national security.

Is anyone else the slightest bit concerned about this? Am I the only one asking, “What is Trump thinking??”

Peter Z. explains it better than I can, but these are some of the biggest takeaways:

1. Suspending Aid to Ukraine: I get it, it’s expensive… but there are so many downsides to this, especially when stopping aid that was already budgeted and shipped. It doesn’t just weaken Ukraine, it strengthens Russia, a country known for hostile actions toward the U.S.

2. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico: Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada. Since they are our top trading partners, this makes manufacturing in the U.S. economically unviable overnight, pushing investment away from North America and toward China. Not to mention, 1/3 - 2/3 of all auto parts are made in these countries. Even if a car is ‘made in the USA,’ this will put HUGE cost increases on domestically made cars.

3. Agricultural Tariffs: Trump plans an additional 40% tariff on agricultural imports, which could drive food prices much higher and increase poverty levels even higher.

4. Weakening Government Institutions: Trump’s firings across government departments have removed experienced and non-political professionals, including those responsible for maintaining crucial safety standards, national security, and infrastructure. The USDA food safety inspectors and personnel monitoring diseases like bird flu have been dismissed. Not to mention, the people who maintain our nuclear arsenal. Of all the people you could fire, why would you eliminate crucial roles like this?

5. Reduction in Cybersecurity and International Influence: The U.S. has canceled operations protecting us from Russian cyber threats… seriously? Not to mention, drastically reduced international aid, allowing rivals like Russia and Iran to step into those roles globally, potentially undermining U.S. influence and security.

These moves are too intentional and systematic to be chocked up to mere incompetence or random policy errors.

To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if we found out Trump is a Russian asset at this point. Everything he’s done seems designed to undermine US security and build up Russia’s. It just doesn’t make any sense!

Will this affect our livelihoods as real estate investors? Certainly. But I’m honestly more concerned about the larger damage he’s doing to our national security and our reputation around the world.

Am I alone in this?

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You’re not alone. I’ve also been troubled about this. The Ukraine and tariffs are especially getting under my skin.

I don’t know this Zeihan fellow, but tariffs hitting Canada and Mexico alone could seriously disrupt the supply chains and a lot of jobs. And cutting Ukraine aid while weakening our cybersecurity seems like absolute nonsense to me.

Most of my friends voted for Trump, so this is an awkward thing to talk about in my social circles. I never know who is going to make things weird if I bring up these subjects.

I’m not sure what the bigger picture is here, but thanks for the post. It’s important to have these conversations openly.

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I’m a big Peter Zeihan fan as well. He has a unique perspective and great insights. You’re right to be concerned about the changes being implemented. It’s creating complete chaos here and across the globe. Pretty safe to assume there will be a recession, hopefully not as bad as 2008. Buckle up its going to be a bumpy ride.

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Trump is showing himself to be a complete lunatic. Now he can’t decide whether to invade Greenland or Panama, and it’s only Thursday!

I’ll admit it. I voted for this clown. I thought he was the better alternative between two terrible choices, but I’m also sane enough to know when someone is off their rocker. What he’s done in 2 months is astonishing, and not in a good way.

I can’t believe that nobody in the entire GOP is pumping the brakes on this. Do they really think this is good?

There really aren’t words for what’s happening right now. It’s an embarrassment.

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Not a fan of the crowd and media, Buckle up major changes are ahead. You are being distracted by the noise. We are now pushing away from Europe.

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Super concerned about all things you listed plus some other things being done, the tactics being used, the total loss of any checks and the people he is surrounding himself with. You are not alone in being concerned.

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@Mark_Hudson what noise are being distracted by? Do you think these are all good changes we’ve been seeing?

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The chess pieces clashing on the board. All those countries mentioned are for military defense purposes. We are mere minutes from Russia throwing a missile at Mach 15 over the north pole. We need all the distance mention aka Canada and Greenland. When are we going to start protecting and defending our land? Time to move the chess pieces to a more sentinel positions.

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Hey Charlotte. I’m in the money management business for my W-2 so just wanted to chime in since you mentioned your living as a real estate investor (Disclaimer: this is not financial advice and does not reflect the views of my W-2 employer).

My general philosophy, especially with investments, is to not worry about what’s out of my control. A lot of people (especially in investments) make a lot of money selling fear. Sure. Everything could always collapse. Great empires tend towards decay and ultimately collapse. Even Rome - possibly the greatest and mightiest empire in history prior to the American Empire - fell. But if that’s where all this goes, the downside risk of being invested (in real estate or otherwise) is exactly the same as not being invested - the dollar goes to zero and we enter a new dark age.

But. Let’s say this ISN’T the end. Let’s say America has a few more legs to run. The opportunity cost is astronomical. Millions perhaps.

There are ultimately very few things within our control in investing. The big one is whether or not we’re invested. If being out helps you sleep at night - I can’t argue with that. Just be aware it hasn’t paid historically (even in unprecedented crises like COVID).

The way I see it, if I play the game and win, I’m a millionaire. If I play the game and it all goes to hell, I’m eating scraps from the dumpster behind Wegmans. If I don’t play the game and it goes to hell, I’m still eating scraps from the dumpster! So why not focus on what I can control and play the game? Again. That’s just me. If it helps you sleep at night to be out, by all means - this is not financial advice and I can’t tell you how to live your life - just trying to share some wisdom I’ve picked up during my career. God bless!

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@mmehring96 well said!

Something I’ve come to realize in recent years is that playing the game to win is a very different thing than playing the game to not lose.

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Thank you Seth! That’s so true. I think a lot of clients come to my company for this reason. They’ve already won the game and now they’re trying to preserve their wealth for future generations. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. Just a different mindset.