It seems like in the last 3-4 months I have seen at least 3 land flipping coaches and big coaching groups close down (many are refocusing just on their own flipping business). I also feel that especially since the beginning of 2025 that the land flipping business has gotten over-saturated. Does anyone else have any information or thoughts on this?
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Which coaches do you mean? I heard about a couple of them shutting down, but it was through the grapevine. They don’t usually make a big show of going out of business.
I think it has gotten over-saturated in some areas and for certain property types. With some of these land market research tools that everyone seems to use now, they’re literally pointing all their users towards the same markets, so it doesn’t surprise me that some of those areas now have a bunch of land investors who think they are working in some kind of secret hot spot that nobody else knows about (spoiler: everyone else on that software is thinking the same way).
If anything, those tools could be making our lives a lot harder, because they send you straight to the highest-competition markets in existence - high competition that they created.
Of course, it’s hard for anyone to prove, but if you take a step back and look at how those market research websites work and what’s happening in those markets, it makes some sense.
Try working in some of the markets they don’t tell you to work in, and see how much less competition you encounter there.
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Yes. Property owners are totally burnt out of getting calls and offers. It also makes them feel like there is such high demand for their land that they want way more than market value for it.
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The price discovery arbitrage that underpins the entire land flipping business model has been taken away by all the software programs now available, as Amy well described. This has lead to margin compression. Meanwhile, direct mail costs continue to rise (our primary marketing channel) just as mail yields continue to fall. We’ve stopped mailing and focused on our subdivide projects which take longer and demand more capital and expertise. I feel that “gurus” exiting the business is a good sign, as their under-educated students who have been making the ridiculous offers we have been seeing that the try to double-close will also be forced out of the business. I tell people to save their money and wait for this all to shake out or choose another asset class.
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So focus on value-creation strategies instead. Think about minor subdivisions and urban infill lots, things like that. Also use ChatGPT to isolate opportunities through the local MLS or in the area you want to invest in. All the gurus ever taught us was some techniques. Its up to us to think creatively and do thinks the masses aren’t doing.
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Sumner Healey said it best I think. “We are entering the skill era of land investing”. People who don’t put in the work, who don’t adapt, and who don’t have effective systems and processes are getting squeezed out. Also you can’t just “try” it anymore and figure it out as you go.
You have to be willing to put in A LOT of money toward education to reduce your learning curve and approach it like you are creating a scalable business. This niche has become a lot harder to do as a side hustle. Absolute best thing anyone can do right now in my opinion is pony up the cash and join a program with a thriving, successful land community and approach it like you are trying to replace your W2. The amount of people willing to help and who believe “if you succeed, we all succeed” in this niche still boggles my mind.
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